In 2007 Kenya’s central bank let Safaricom launch M-Pesa on the strength of a single administrative letter — a “letter of no objection” — rather than a finished body of payment-system law. Safaricom invested roughly US$30 million over the service’s first three years, and Kenya built the most-cited mobile money market in the world.
Afghanistan’s central bank was criticised for the opposite failure: an inability to police Kabul Bank, whose 2011 collapse wiped out roughly US$900 million in fraudulent loans, froze a World Bank trust fund and left civic trust in the financial sector permanently diminished.
Most of the developing world sits between these poles. This brief asks a narrower question than whether regulation matters: which specific forms of institutional and regulatory capacity are tied to market expansion and investment, and which are tied to their absence.