Northern Nigeria is one of the country’s most important agricultural regions, underpinning national food and nutrition security through rain-fed crop production, livestock farming, and fishing. However, rural households in the Sudano-Sahelian zone face escalating climate risks, including erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts, flooding, and rising temperatures. These shocks increasingly undermine the production of staple crops such as millet and sorghum, exposing smallholder farmers to recurrent losses and food insecurity.
Agricultural index insurance-where payouts are triggered by measurable weather indicators rather than individual farm losses-offers a cost-effective tool to manage climate risk. Yet adoption in northern Nigeria has remained low. The region’s predominantly Muslim population has raised concerns about conventional insurance products, which may conflict with Islamic principles due to uncertainty, gambling, and interest.
To address this gap, a team of Nigerian researchers led by Prof. Peter Njiforti (Principal Investigator) and Dr. Muhammad Kabir designed and tested a Mutual Weather-Index Insurance (MWII) product structured according to Takaful principles. The research was implemented by senior researchers from Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, with funding from the former Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Markets, Risk & Resilience at the University of California, Davis, in partnership with the International Centre for Evaluation and Development (ICED), under the Advancing Local Leadership and Innovation Networks (ALL-IN) program. The program seeks to strengthen locally led research in Sub-Saharan Africa, ensuring that evidence generation and policy influence are driven by African institutions and scholars.
.JPG)
Reflecting on the importance of this approach, Dr. David Ameyaw, President and CEO of ICED, noted:
“At ICED, we believe Africa’s development challenges must be addressed through evidence generated and led by African researchers who understand the local context. The ALL-IN program is designed to shift power in research by strengthening local leadership, building institutional capacity, and ensuring that evidence directly informs policy and practice. This study exemplifies that vision by combining rigorous analysis with cultural relevance to advance climate resilience and inclusive agricultural finance in Africa.”
The study was conducted during the 2023-2024 agricultural season using a randomized controlled trial involving 964 millet and sorghum farmers across seven northern states. Farmers were assigned to receive information on conventional weather-index insurance, Takaful-based mutual insurance, or no intervention.
.JPG)
The results show that exposure to MWII increased farmers’ willingness to participate in future Takaful insurance programs by 7.7 percentage points, representing roughly a 20 percent increase relative to baseline intentions. This indicates strong latent demand once farmers are exposed to culturally appropriate and well-explained insurance products.
The strongest effects were observed in Jigawa, Sokoto, Kano, and Yobe states, suggesting clear opportunities for strategic geographic targeting. Farmer characteristics also mattered: individuals with prior insurance experience and higher education levels responded more positively, highlighting the importance of familiarity, trust, and comprehension.
Religious compliance emerged as a critical factor. Insurance products explicitly designed around Islamic finance principles resonated strongly with Muslim farming communities. Equally important was implementation quality. High-quality training, clear communication, and trusted delivery partners were essential for building confidence and sustaining demand.
Prof. Njiforti on what leading this locally driven research meant to him, and how the findings can shape climate resilience and agricultural finance in northern Nigeria:
“Leading this locally driven research has been deeply meaningful for me, both as an academic and as a Nigerian who understands how vulnerable our farming communities are to climate shocks.”
“This work has shown that when research is led from within the country, by people who know the context, we are better able to design solutions that truly fit our realities.
The findings clearly demonstrate that Takaful-based weather-index insurance can provide a practical and acceptable way for farmers to manage climate risks without compromising their beliefs.
I believe these results can help shape smarter policies and unlock new forms of agricultural finance that are both inclusive and sustainable, ultimately strengthening climate resilience across northern Nigeria.”
Dr. Kabir on lessons from engaging directly with farming communities and the value of culturally appropriate risk management tools:
“Spending time with farmers in their fields and homes made the reality of climate risk very clear.
For many, one failed season can wipe out years of effort.
What struck me most was how readily they embraced the Takaful insurance once they understood it.
It wasn't just about financial protection; it was about community, shared responsibility, and a system that aligned with their values.
This project wasn't just research; it was a journey of learning from them, and it taught me that the most effective tools are those that speak directly to people's hearts and their way of life.”
The findings point to several priority actions. First, policymakers, insurers, and development partners should prioritize Takaful-compliant Mutual Weather-Index Insurance as a viable climate risk management tool for Muslim-majority farming communities. Second, early deployment should focus on high-potential states where impacts are strongest, while adapting approaches for other contexts.
Third, sustained investment in farmer education and training is essential to ensure understanding and trust, particularly given the technical nature of index insurance. Fourth, programs should build on farmers with prior insurance experience as early adopters and peer champions. Finally, scaling should emphasize implementation quality, supported by enabling regulatory frameworks, robust weather data systems, and partnerships with trusted local institutions.
Combined, these actions can help transform Takaful-based weather-index insurance into a cornerstone of climate resilience in northern Nigeria-protecting livelihoods, strengthening food security, and supporting more inclusive and resilient agricultural value chains across the region.
